Euro-Haukur at Monitor writes for us for the first time to day!
What nobody thought could ever happen has indeed happened. None of the ex-Yugoslav countries will be in the final tonight! Which is of course the first time that has happened after the semi-final was first introduced.
Another interesting thing is that all the Nordic countries are in tonight. The tables have turned so perhaps the Balkan nations now refer to us as the “Northern mafia” but at the same time we should hope that the myth of the “Eastern mafia” has died.
But if we just imagine that the common person in the Balkan is not at all happy with us in the north and the west, what impact could that have on tonight’s results?
This is something that has been discussed widely amongst fans here in Malmö. Many believe that Greece, as one of the nearest neighbors, will eat up all the Balkan douze points while others believe that the Greeks are not at all popular with their neighbors – especially the ones in Macedonia, because of a long lasting, ongoing neighbor dispute. Others think that their friends right across the Adriatic sea, the Italians, have more support coming their way. However, in a year where Denmark is what most people seem to betting on, the big question should be: Are the Balkan nations really that subjective (as us in the North seem to be – at least in Iceland)? Ore better yet, do they even like the Danish song?
Where does that leave us? What will us Nordics do when all our “friends” are in the final? According to statistics it is next to impossible that Iceland is gonna give Denmark anything less than 12 points. However, it is quite likely that the neighborhood voting of the other Nordic countries will be much more evenly split between their friends. That can lead to none of them really taking a big lead in the area. It is even possible that their votes will even so much out, that the most popular non-Nordic country could actually will get ahead in the race.
According to bookies, Azerbaijan is yet again a likely winner, as well as Russia, Ukraine and even Georgia. These countries all serve us a very western dish this year and they also all have a history of very high placing in the final.
The Azeri song is by many considered the most likely to win of this lot. Could it be that Azerbaijan, the country that is the furthest away from the actual center of the continent, will be the lowed denominator once again?
Could that even be the key to success in this competition, to be too far away to get dragged into old cliques? If that is the case, then maybe it is time for Iceland to take the first step and try to think outside of the map when we vote this year.
And finally, one wish to whoever will read out the Icelandic vote this year: Please do not finish with the words “and finally, to our friends in Denmark!” when we give Denmark their annual 12 points. That would be a be a very positive step!